Stock Watch: Thoroughly Moderna Missteps

When Clinical And Regulatory Successes Fail To Impress Investors

 
• By Andy Smith
  
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When life hands a biotech company the equivalent of good grapes, the expectations are for its products to be the equivalent of fine wine. Before that Moderna looks likely to make lemonade.

Stock Watch Image, Andy Smith
ANDY SMITH OFFERS A LIFE SCIENCE INVESTOR'S PERSPECTIVE ON BIOPHARMA BUSINESS

Investors in companies like Pfizer Inc.* and Roche Holding AG have discovered that developing vaccines, drugs and diagnostics that helped resolve the pandemic has been a double-edged sword. For example, Pfizer’s stock price rose by about 45% between mid-2019 and the end of 2021 when the clinical and commercial successes of its antiviral Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) to treat COVID-19 and its mRNA vaccine to prevent it – Comirnaty – dominated the company’s investment proposition. After Paxlovid and Comirnaty sales peaked in 2022, Pfizer’s business returned to a more sedate pace. In consequence, Pfizer’s stock price has almost halved since the December 2021 peak as unfavorable revenue comparisons continually remind investors of its pandemic heyday.

A slightly different dynamic was seen with the NASDAQ Biotech Index (NBI). Like Pfizer’s stock price, it rose by almost...

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